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Question

What is the best month for European natural gas (TTF)?

Short answer

Since 2009, August has been the strongest month for European natural gas (TTF), averaging +8.85% and rising in 59% of 17 years. February has been the weakest, at -5.15%.

We rate the August pattern as weak and the February pattern as strong. November comes second at +5.47%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

European natural gas (TTF), 1992 to 2026

+8.8%+4.4%-4.4%-8.8%Jan: average +1.94%, up in 52% of 33 yearsJanFeb: average -5.15%, up in 11% of 18 yearsFebMar: average +0.96%, up in 41% of 17 yearsMarApr: average -1.93%, up in 51% of 35 yearsAprMay: average -2.79%, up in 35% of 17 yearsMayJun: average +1.98%, up in 56% of 18 yearsJunJul: average +2.87%, up in 56% of 34 yearsJulAug: average +8.85%, up in 59% of 17 yearsAugSep: average +5.39%, up in 50% of 16 yearsSepOct: average +2.91%, up in 64% of 33 yearsOctNov: average +5.47%, up in 53% of 17 yearsNovDec: average +3.75%, up in 59% of 17 yearsDec
European natural gas (TTF): average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1August+8.85%+1.06%59%weak
2November+5.47%+0.27%53%weak
3September+5.39%+0.05%50%no clear pattern
4December+3.75%+0.27%59%no clear pattern
5October+2.91%+2.98%64%weak
6July+2.87%+1.85%56%no clear pattern
7June+1.98%+0.32%56%no clear pattern
8January+1.94%+1.63%52%no clear pattern
9March+0.96%-1.29%41%no clear pattern
10April-1.93%+0.37%51%no clear pattern
11May-2.79%-0.38%35%weak
12February-5.15%-3.04%11%strong

Why it might happen

  • Europe's storage refill season runs from April to October; EU rules set fill targets ahead of winter.
  • LNG imports from the US and Qatar replaced most pipeline gas from Russia after 2022.
  • Cold snaps, wind output and Norwegian maintenance drive short-term spikes.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: European natural gas (TTF). How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.