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Question

What is the best month for Shell?

Short answer

Since 1997, March has been the strongest month for Shell, averaging +1.97% and rising in 66% of 29 years. July has been the weakest, at -2.47%.

We rate the March pattern as moderate and the July pattern as no clear pattern. October comes second at +1.66%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Shell, 1996 to 2026

+2.5%+1.2%-1.2%-2.5%Jan: average -1.27%, up in 40% of 30 yearsJanFeb: average +0.70%, up in 62% of 29 yearsFebMar: average +1.97%, up in 66% of 29 yearsMarApr: average +1.27%, up in 60% of 30 yearsAprMay: average +0.98%, up in 60% of 30 yearsMayJun: average +0.81%, up in 59% of 29 yearsJunJul: average -2.47%, up in 61% of 28 yearsJulAug: average -1.42%, up in 38% of 29 yearsAugSep: average -0.73%, up in 45% of 31 yearsSepOct: average +1.66%, up in 72% of 29 yearsOctNov: average -0.10%, up in 32% of 28 yearsNovDec: average +1.64%, up in 66% of 29 yearsDec
Shell: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1March+1.97%+2.36%66%moderate
2October+1.66%+2.94%72%strong
3December+1.64%+0.98%66%moderate
4April+1.27%+1.95%60%weak
5May+0.98%+0.94%60%no clear pattern
6June+0.81%+1.19%59%no clear pattern
7February+0.70%+1.31%62%weak
8November-0.10%-0.98%32%weak
9September-0.73%-1.90%45%no clear pattern
10January-1.27%-1.69%40%no clear pattern
11August-1.42%-0.79%38%weak
12July-2.47%+0.88%61%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 16 to May 15Opens in 159 days
76%higher in 29 years
Average +5.30%Median +4.13%Worst year -10.99%

Likely range of the hit rate 58% to 88%. 1997 to 2010: 71%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Nov 5 to Nov 30Opens in 28 days
83%lower in 29 years
Average -1.02%Median -1.86%Worst year +29.83%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 93%. 1997 to 2010: 64%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • Oil and LNG prices and trading results; publishes a quarterly update note before earnings.
  • Buyback pace and capital discipline.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Shell. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.