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Question

What is the best month for Microsoft?

Short answer

Since 1987, January has been the strongest month for Microsoft, averaging +5.07% and rising in 65% of 40 years. February has been the weakest, at -0.76%.

We rate the January pattern as moderate and the February pattern as no clear pattern. October comes second at +4.89%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Microsoft, 1986 to 2026

+5.1%+2.5%-2.5%-5.1%Jan: average +5.07%, up in 65% of 40 yearsJanFeb: average -0.76%, up in 45% of 40 yearsFebMar: average +2.88%, up in 65% of 40 yearsMarApr: average +3.54%, up in 68% of 41 yearsAprMay: average +3.13%, up in 66% of 41 yearsMayJun: average +1.87%, up in 56% of 41 yearsJunJul: average +0.31%, up in 54% of 41 yearsJulAug: average +1.88%, up in 64% of 39 yearsAugSep: average +0.65%, up in 59% of 41 yearsSepOct: average +4.89%, up in 65% of 40 yearsOctNov: average +2.89%, up in 63% of 40 yearsNovDec: average +1.58%, up in 59% of 39 yearsDec
Microsoft: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+5.07%+3.07%65%moderate
2October+4.89%+4.05%65%strong
3April+3.54%+4.74%68%strong
4May+3.13%+2.60%66%strong
5November+2.89%+3.77%63%moderate
6March+2.88%+2.23%65%moderate
7August+1.88%+2.29%64%weak
8June+1.87%+1.92%56%no clear pattern
9December+1.58%+1.49%59%no clear pattern
10September+0.65%+1.11%59%no clear pattern
11July+0.31%+0.74%54%no clear pattern
12February-0.76%-0.64%45%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Mar 8 to Apr 27Opens in 151 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +6.27%Median +6.35%Worst year -26.78%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Jun 12 to Jul 17Opens in 247 days
87%higher in 30 years
Average +6.15%Median +4.00%Worst year -6.37%

Likely range of the hit rate 71% to 95%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 100%.

Oct 4 to Dec 13Open now, 66 days left
83%higher in 30 years
Average +8.08%Median +8.54%Worst year -25.95%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Why it might happen

  • Azure cloud growth and AI infrastructure spending, reported quarterly with a fiscal year ending in June.
  • Enterprise IT budgets, which are often set in the fourth calendar quarter.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Microsoft. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.