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Question

What is the best month for LVMH?

Short answer

Since 2000, October has been the strongest month for LVMH, averaging +4.30% and rising in 73% of 26 years. September has been the weakest, at -2.48%.

We rate the October pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +3.80%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

LVMH, 2000 to 2026

+4.3%+2.1%-2.1%-4.3%Jan: average +0.43%, up in 58% of 26 yearsJanFeb: average +1.71%, up in 59% of 27 yearsFebMar: average +0.35%, up in 56% of 27 yearsMarApr: average +3.80%, up in 63% of 27 yearsAprMay: average +0.74%, up in 59% of 27 yearsMayJun: average -1.47%, up in 41% of 27 yearsJunJul: average +2.84%, up in 67% of 27 yearsJulAug: average -1.41%, up in 41% of 27 yearsAugSep: average -2.48%, up in 56% of 27 yearsSepOct: average +4.30%, up in 73% of 26 yearsOctNov: average +1.56%, up in 50% of 26 yearsNovDec: average +0.99%, up in 69% of 26 yearsDec
LVMH: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1October+4.30%+4.79%73%strong
2April+3.80%+3.52%63%strong
3July+2.84%+2.25%67%strong
4February+1.71%+1.53%59%weak
5November+1.56%+0.73%50%no clear pattern
6December+0.99%+2.32%69%moderate
7May+0.74%+0.88%59%no clear pattern
8January+0.43%+0.65%58%no clear pattern
9March+0.35%+1.50%56%no clear pattern
10August-1.41%-1.98%41%no clear pattern
11June-1.47%-2.49%41%no clear pattern
12September-2.48%+0.62%56%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 29 to Apr 29Opens in 113 days
80%higher in 25 years
Average +7.34%Median +6.55%Worst year -30.35%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 91%. 2001 to 2012: 92%, 2013 to 2025: 69%. Weaker in recent years.

Jul 8 to Jul 23Opens in 273 days
76%higher in 25 years
Average +2.36%Median +1.44%Worst year -12.63%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 67%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Aug 1 to Aug 11Opens in 297 days
76%lower in 25 years
Average -1.13%Median -0.79%Worst year +9.87%

Likely range of the hit rate 57% to 89%. 2001 to 2012: 75%, 2013 to 2025: 77%.

Sep 24 to Dec 8Open now, 61 days left
84%higher in 25 years
Average +8.16%Median +8.56%Worst year -35.52%

Likely range of the hit rate 65% to 94%. 2001 to 2012: 83%, 2013 to 2025: 85%.

Why it might happen

  • Luxury demand from Chinese, US and European consumers, plus tourism flows.
  • Currency moves and tariffs on European goods.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: LVMH. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.