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Question

What is the best month for JPMorgan Chase?

Short answer

Since 1981, January has been the strongest month for JPMorgan Chase, averaging +3.49% and rising in 63% of 46 years. September has been the weakest, at -1.95%.

We rate the January pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. April comes second at +3.30%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

JPMorgan Chase, 1980 to 2026

+3.5%+1.7%-1.7%-3.5%Jan: average +3.49%, up in 63% of 46 yearsJanFeb: average +2.35%, up in 57% of 46 yearsFebMar: average +1.00%, up in 46% of 46 yearsMarApr: average +3.30%, up in 61% of 46 yearsAprMay: average +0.97%, up in 57% of 47 yearsMayJun: average +0.15%, up in 55% of 47 yearsJunJul: average +2.10%, up in 66% of 47 yearsJulAug: average +0.15%, up in 51% of 47 yearsAugSep: average -1.95%, up in 51% of 47 yearsSepOct: average +2.20%, up in 61% of 46 yearsOctNov: average +2.00%, up in 57% of 46 yearsNovDec: average +1.63%, up in 54% of 46 yearsDec
JPMorgan Chase: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+3.49%+4.64%63%strong
2April+3.30%+2.35%61%strong
3February+2.35%+2.61%57%weak
4October+2.20%+3.10%61%weak
5July+2.10%+1.80%66%weak
6November+2.00%+1.86%57%no clear pattern
7December+1.63%+1.40%54%weak
8March+1.00%-1.29%46%no clear pattern
9May+0.97%+1.45%57%no clear pattern
10June+0.15%+1.04%55%no clear pattern
11August+0.15%+0.09%51%no clear pattern
12September-1.95%+0.12%51%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 21 to Feb 15Opens in 105 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +3.45%Median +4.89%Worst year -16.32%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Jun 22 to Jul 22Opens in 257 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +2.81%Median +2.73%Worst year -24.86%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Sep 10 to Dec 9Open now, 62 days left
83%higher in 30 years
Average +7.34%Median +5.56%Worst year -30.33%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Dec 15 to Dec 30Opens in 68 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +2.33%Median +1.40%Worst year -4.29%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Why it might happen

  • The largest US bank; usually the first big company to report each earnings season.
  • Net interest income depends on the shape of the yield curve; trading and deal fees depend on market activity.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: JPMorgan Chase. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.