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Question

What is the best month for Ibovespa?

Short answer

Since 1994, January has been the strongest month for Ibovespa, averaging +5.14% and rising in 48% of 33 years. October has been the weakest, at +1.31%.

We rate the January pattern as weak and the October pattern as weak. November comes second at +4.67%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Ibovespa, 1993 to 2026

+5.1%+2.6%-2.6%-5.1%Jan: average +5.14%, up in 48% of 33 yearsJanFeb: average +2.22%, up in 58% of 33 yearsFebMar: average +2.32%, up in 48% of 33 yearsMarApr: average +2.98%, up in 64% of 33 yearsAprMay: average +1.98%, up in 44% of 34 yearsMayJun: average +3.23%, up in 56% of 34 yearsJunJul: average +2.78%, up in 71% of 34 yearsJulAug: average +1.91%, up in 59% of 34 yearsAugSep: average +2.11%, up in 71% of 34 yearsSepOct: average +1.31%, up in 64% of 33 yearsOctNov: average +4.67%, up in 61% of 33 yearsNovDec: average +3.62%, up in 67% of 33 yearsDec
Ibovespa: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+5.14%-1.73%48%weak
2November+4.67%+2.03%61%strong
3December+3.62%+2.85%67%strong
4June+3.23%+0.38%56%no clear pattern
5April+2.98%+2.40%64%moderate
6July+2.78%+3.24%71%strong
7March+2.32%-0.06%48%no clear pattern
8February+2.22%+0.67%58%no clear pattern
9September+2.11%+2.95%71%moderate
10May+1.98%-1.23%44%no clear pattern
11August+1.91%+1.45%59%no clear pattern
12October+1.31%+1.79%64%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 21 to Apr 1Opens in 105 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +4.56%Median +3.55%Worst year -37.60%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 73%. Weaker in recent years.

Sep 30 to Nov 24Open now, 47 days left
77%higher in 30 years
Average +4.78%Median +4.33%Worst year -32.10%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 73%.

Dec 19 to Dec 29Opens in 72 days
83%higher in 30 years
Average +1.97%Median +1.60%Worst year -6.76%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Why it might happen

  • Brazil's benchmark, heavy in commodities (Vale, Petrobras) and banks.
  • The Selic policy rate, fiscal credibility and election outcomes drive foreign flows and the real.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Ibovespa. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.