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Question

What is the best month for Hang Seng?

Short answer

Since 1987, February has been the strongest month for Hang Seng, averaging +2.30% and rising in 60% of 40 years. August has been the weakest, at -1.54%.

We rate the February pattern as moderate and the August pattern as moderate. July comes second at +2.29%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Hang Seng, 1987 to 2026

+2.3%+1.1%-1.1%-2.3%Jan: average +0.49%, up in 55% of 40 yearsJanFeb: average +2.30%, up in 60% of 40 yearsFebMar: average -1.04%, up in 53% of 40 yearsMarApr: average +2.22%, up in 68% of 40 yearsAprMay: average +0.43%, up in 48% of 40 yearsMayJun: average -0.10%, up in 55% of 40 yearsJunJul: average +2.29%, up in 65% of 40 yearsJulAug: average -1.54%, up in 40% of 40 yearsAugSep: average -0.06%, up in 50% of 40 yearsSepOct: average +0.76%, up in 67% of 39 yearsOctNov: average +1.21%, up in 51% of 39 yearsNovDec: average +2.01%, up in 67% of 39 yearsDec
Hang Seng: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1February+2.30%+1.46%60%moderate
2July+2.29%+2.88%65%strong
3April+2.22%+2.16%68%strong
4December+2.01%+1.21%67%strong
5November+1.21%+0.32%51%no clear pattern
6October+0.76%+2.76%67%moderate
7January+0.49%+1.28%55%no clear pattern
8May+0.43%-0.23%48%no clear pattern
9September-0.06%+0.38%50%no clear pattern
10June-0.10%+0.44%55%no clear pattern
11March-1.04%+0.18%53%no clear pattern
12August-1.54%-0.85%40%moderate

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 8 to Feb 18Opens in 123 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +1.55%Median +1.76%Worst year -4.68%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Mar 28 to May 2Opens in 171 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +2.93%Median +2.32%Worst year -15.16%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 67%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Sep 26 to Nov 15Open now, 38 days left
77%higher in 30 years
Average +3.48%Median +4.92%Worst year -32.31%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Dec 21 to Dec 31Opens in 74 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +1.01%Median +1.44%Worst year -5.90%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 67%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Why it might happen

  • Hong Kong-listed Chinese internet, banks and property companies; driven by Beijing's stimulus and US-China relations.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Hang Seng. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.