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Question

What is the best month for GBP/USD?

Short answer

Since 2004, April has been the strongest month for GBP/USD, averaging +1.20% and rising in 78% of 23 years. September has been the weakest, at -0.69%.

We rate the April pattern as strong and the September pattern as weak. July comes second at +0.53%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

GBP/USD, 2004 to 2026

+1.2%+0.6%-0.6%-1.2%Jan: average +0.52%, up in 57% of 23 yearsJanFeb: average -0.38%, up in 43% of 23 yearsFebMar: average -0.45%, up in 35% of 23 yearsMarApr: average +1.20%, up in 78% of 23 yearsAprMay: average -0.38%, up in 35% of 23 yearsMayJun: average -0.31%, up in 52% of 23 yearsJunJul: average +0.53%, up in 65% of 23 yearsJulAug: average -0.58%, up in 39% of 23 yearsAugSep: average -0.69%, up in 39% of 23 yearsSepOct: average -0.21%, up in 50% of 22 yearsOctNov: average +0.14%, up in 55% of 22 yearsNovDec: average -0.37%, up in 45% of 22 yearsDec
GBP/USD: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+1.20%+1.50%78%strong
2July+0.53%+0.88%65%weak
3January+0.52%+0.20%57%no clear pattern
4November+0.14%+0.07%55%no clear pattern
5October-0.21%+0.05%50%no clear pattern
6June-0.31%+0.19%52%no clear pattern
7December-0.37%-0.48%45%no clear pattern
8February-0.38%-0.22%43%no clear pattern
9May-0.38%-0.66%35%weak
10March-0.45%-0.29%35%weak
11August-0.58%-0.60%39%weak
12September-0.69%-1.65%39%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Apr 1 to May 1Opens in 175 days
82%higher in 22 years
Average +1.17%Median +1.37%Worst year -5.20%

Likely range of the hit rate 62% to 93%. 2004 to 2014: 91%, 2015 to 2025: 73%. Weaker in recent years.

Jul 8 to Jul 28Opens in 273 days
77%higher in 22 years
Average +0.81%Median +0.76%Worst year -1.69%

Likely range of the hit rate 56% to 90%. 2004 to 2014: 82%, 2015 to 2025: 73%.

Sep 18 to Oct 8Open now, 0 days left
86%lower in 22 years
Average -1.39%Median -1.29%Worst year +1.61%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 95%. 2004 to 2014: 73%, 2015 to 2025: 100%.

Nov 17 to Dec 2Opens in 40 days
77%higher in 22 years
Average +0.85%Median +0.46%Worst year -1.74%

Likely range of the hit rate 56% to 90%. 2004 to 2014: 73%, 2015 to 2025: 82%.

Why it might happen

  • Bank of England policy versus the Fed, UK fiscal events and inflation data.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: GBP/USD. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.