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Question

What is the best month for Exxon Mobil?

Short answer

Since 1962, April has been the strongest month for Exxon Mobil, averaging +2.55% and rising in 67% of 64 years. August has been the weakest, at +0.37%.

We rate the April pattern as strong and the August pattern as no clear pattern. October comes second at +1.62%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Exxon Mobil, 1962 to 2026

+2.5%+1.3%-1.3%-2.5%Jan: average +1.48%, up in 51% of 63 yearsJanFeb: average +0.76%, up in 51% of 65 yearsFebMar: average +1.52%, up in 64% of 64 yearsMarApr: average +2.55%, up in 67% of 64 yearsAprMay: average +0.44%, up in 51% of 65 yearsMayJun: average +0.49%, up in 55% of 64 yearsJunJul: average +1.13%, up in 60% of 65 yearsJulAug: average +0.37%, up in 51% of 65 yearsAugSep: average +0.41%, up in 48% of 64 yearsSepOct: average +1.62%, up in 61% of 62 yearsOctNov: average +1.62%, up in 59% of 64 yearsNovDec: average +1.23%, up in 70% of 63 yearsDec
Exxon Mobil: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+2.55%+1.87%67%strong
2October+1.62%+1.58%61%moderate
3November+1.62%+0.99%59%moderate
4March+1.52%+2.40%64%moderate
5January+1.48%+0.31%51%weak
6December+1.23%+1.58%70%strong
7July+1.13%+1.55%60%moderate
8February+0.76%+0.17%51%no clear pattern
9June+0.49%+0.60%55%no clear pattern
10May+0.44%+0.35%51%no clear pattern
11September+0.41%-0.44%48%no clear pattern
12August+0.37%+0.04%51%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 8 to Apr 24Opens in 123 days
87%higher in 30 years
Average +4.16%Median +5.30%Worst year -28.30%

Likely range of the hit rate 71% to 95%. 1996 to 2010: 93%, 2011 to 2025: 80%. Weaker in recent years.

Aug 3 to Oct 17Open now, 9 days left
80%higher in 30 years
Average +2.64%Median +4.07%Worst year -17.37%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 73%. Weaker in recent years.

Oct 30 to Dec 4Opens in 22 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +3.08%Median +2.65%Worst year -4.28%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 67%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • Oil and natural gas prices drive upstream earnings; refining margins matter for the downstream business.
  • OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical supply risk feed through quickly.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Exxon Mobil. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.