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Question

What is the best month for US dollar index (DXY)?

Short answer

Since 1972, January has been the strongest month for US dollar index (DXY), averaging +0.90% and rising in 62% of 55 years. December has been the weakest, at -0.88%.

We rate the January pattern as strong and the December pattern as strong. May comes second at +0.51%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

US dollar index (DXY), 1971 to 2026

+0.9%+0.5%-0.5%-0.9%Jan: average +0.90%, up in 62% of 55 yearsJanFeb: average -0.07%, up in 52% of 56 yearsFebMar: average +0.22%, up in 52% of 56 yearsMarApr: average -0.38%, up in 43% of 56 yearsAprMay: average +0.51%, up in 57% of 56 yearsMayJun: average -0.14%, up in 45% of 56 yearsJunJul: average -0.19%, up in 48% of 56 yearsJulAug: average +0.16%, up in 49% of 55 yearsAugSep: average -0.28%, up in 45% of 55 yearsSepOct: average -0.01%, up in 45% of 55 yearsOctNov: average +0.21%, up in 53% of 55 yearsNovDec: average -0.88%, up in 36% of 55 yearsDec
US dollar index (DXY): average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+0.90%+0.83%62%strong
2May+0.51%+0.56%57%weak
3March+0.22%+0.26%52%no clear pattern
4November+0.21%+0.24%53%no clear pattern
5August+0.16%-0.14%49%no clear pattern
6October-0.01%-0.13%45%no clear pattern
7February-0.07%+0.07%52%no clear pattern
8June-0.14%-0.31%45%no clear pattern
9July-0.19%-0.04%48%no clear pattern
10September-0.28%-0.58%45%no clear pattern
11April-0.38%-0.31%43%no clear pattern
12December-0.88%-0.79%36%strong

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 27 to Feb 11Opens in 111 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +0.45%Median +0.78%Worst year -3.38%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Why it might happen

  • The dollar against six major currencies; rises with US yields and in global risk-off episodes.
  • Year-end funding demand has historically supported the dollar in December.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: US dollar index (DXY). How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.