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Question

What is the best month for BIST 100?

Short answer

Since 1998, April has been the strongest month for BIST 100, averaging +7.43% and rising in 76% of 29 years. May has been the weakest, at -2.67%.

We rate the April pattern as strong and the May pattern as moderate. December comes second at +7.13%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

BIST 100, 1997 to 2026

+7.4%+3.7%-3.7%-7.4%Jan: average +3.37%, up in 69% of 29 yearsJanFeb: average +0.58%, up in 52% of 29 yearsFebMar: average -0.10%, up in 48% of 29 yearsMarApr: average +7.43%, up in 76% of 29 yearsAprMay: average -2.67%, up in 34% of 29 yearsMayJun: average +0.82%, up in 55% of 29 yearsJunJul: average +4.70%, up in 66% of 29 yearsJulAug: average -1.28%, up in 50% of 30 yearsAugSep: average +1.44%, up in 53% of 30 yearsSepOct: average +4.28%, up in 62% of 29 yearsOctNov: average +3.98%, up in 52% of 29 yearsNovDec: average +7.13%, up in 76% of 29 yearsDec
BIST 100: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1April+7.43%+4.28%76%strong
2December+7.13%+4.43%76%strong
3July+4.70%+4.67%66%strong
4October+4.28%+4.54%62%moderate
5November+3.98%+0.73%52%weak
6January+3.37%+3.64%69%strong
7September+1.44%+0.48%53%no clear pattern
8June+0.82%+0.35%55%no clear pattern
9February+0.58%+0.44%52%no clear pattern
10March-0.10%-0.16%48%no clear pattern
11August-1.28%-0.09%50%no clear pattern
12May-2.67%-3.48%34%moderate

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 10 to Apr 21Opens in 126 days
79%higher in 28 years
Average +8.48%Median +6.11%Worst year -16.39%

Likely range of the hit rate 61% to 90%. 1998 to 2011: 93%, 2012 to 2025: 64%. Weaker in recent years.

Jun 18 to Aug 2Opens in 254 days
82%higher in 28 years
Average +6.29%Median +5.46%Worst year -9.16%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 92%. 1998 to 2011: 79%, 2012 to 2025: 86%.

Aug 15 to Nov 3Open now, 27 days left
86%higher in 28 years
Average +6.89%Median +5.10%Worst year -33.27%

Likely range of the hit rate 69% to 94%. 1998 to 2011: 86%, 2012 to 2025: 86%.

Nov 23 to Dec 8Opens in 47 days
82%higher in 28 years
Average +2.99%Median +2.29%Worst year -18.96%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 92%. 1998 to 2011: 79%, 2012 to 2025: 86%.

Why it might happen

  • Turkey's benchmark in lira terms; high inflation lifts nominal prices, so returns in lira overstate real gains.
  • Central bank policy, inflation data and foreign inflows drive banks, the largest sector.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: BIST 100. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.