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Question

What is the best month for ASML?

Short answer

Since 1999, January has been the strongest month for ASML, averaging +15.04% and rising in 75% of 28 years. September has been the weakest, at -3.02%.

We rate the January pattern as strong and the September pattern as no clear pattern. October comes second at +7.52%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

ASML, 1998 to 2026

+15.0%+7.5%-7.5%-15.0%Jan: average +15.04%, up in 75% of 28 yearsJanFeb: average -0.47%, up in 50% of 28 yearsFebMar: average +1.88%, up in 54% of 28 yearsMarApr: average +2.00%, up in 46% of 28 yearsAprMay: average +2.31%, up in 57% of 28 yearsMayJun: average +1.71%, up in 50% of 28 yearsJunJul: average +2.86%, up in 54% of 28 yearsJulAug: average -2.53%, up in 41% of 29 yearsAugSep: average -3.02%, up in 52% of 29 yearsSepOct: average +7.52%, up in 68% of 28 yearsOctNov: average +5.83%, up in 68% of 28 yearsNovDec: average +2.05%, up in 64% of 28 yearsDec
ASML: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1January+15.04%+5.74%75%strong
2October+7.52%+4.46%68%strong
3November+5.83%+4.90%68%strong
4July+2.86%+2.07%54%no clear pattern
5May+2.31%+4.74%57%no clear pattern
6December+2.05%+2.17%64%weak
7April+2.00%-0.54%46%no clear pattern
8March+1.88%+1.13%54%no clear pattern
9June+1.71%+0.01%50%no clear pattern
10February-0.47%-0.53%50%no clear pattern
11August-2.53%-0.78%41%no clear pattern
12September-3.02%+0.13%52%no clear pattern

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 5 to Feb 4Opens in 89 days
78%higher in 27 years
Average +7.04%Median +6.03%Worst year -19.35%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 90%. 1999 to 2011: 69%, 2012 to 2025: 86%.

Mar 12 to Apr 1Opens in 155 days
78%higher in 27 years
Average +2.81%Median +3.35%Worst year -24.95%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 90%. 1999 to 2011: 85%, 2012 to 2025: 71%. Weaker in recent years.

May 15 to Jun 4Opens in 219 days
78%higher in 27 years
Average +2.80%Median +2.42%Worst year -22.10%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 90%. 1999 to 2011: 85%, 2012 to 2025: 71%. Weaker in recent years.

Oct 18 to Dec 12Opens in 10 days
85%higher in 27 years
Average +12.10%Median +7.20%Worst year -5.77%

Likely range of the hit rate 67% to 94%. 1999 to 2011: 92%, 2012 to 2025: 79%. Weaker in recent years.

Why it might happen

  • Sole supplier of EUV lithography machines; orders follow chipmaker capital spending.
  • Export restrictions on China and the AI chip build-out.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: ASML. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.