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Question

What is the best month for Apple?

Short answer

Since 1981, October has been the strongest month for Apple, averaging +6.17% and rising in 69% of 45 years. September has been the weakest, at -3.77%.

We rate the October pattern as strong and the September pattern as weak. August comes second at +5.38%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Apple, 1981 to 2026

+6.2%+3.1%-3.1%-6.2%Jan: average +3.59%, up in 57% of 46 yearsJanFeb: average +1.68%, up in 54% of 46 yearsFebMar: average +2.20%, up in 50% of 46 yearsMarApr: average +3.65%, up in 59% of 46 yearsAprMay: average +2.50%, up in 54% of 46 yearsMayJun: average -1.94%, up in 46% of 46 yearsJunJul: average +3.19%, up in 63% of 46 yearsJulAug: average +5.38%, up in 63% of 46 yearsAugSep: average -3.77%, up in 38% of 45 yearsSepOct: average +6.17%, up in 69% of 45 yearsOctNov: average +2.91%, up in 56% of 45 yearsNovDec: average +1.45%, up in 60% of 45 yearsDec
Apple: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1October+6.17%+6.03%69%strong
2August+5.38%+4.67%63%strong
3April+3.65%+1.54%59%moderate
4January+3.59%+0.98%57%no clear pattern
5July+3.19%+3.07%63%weak
6November+2.91%+3.24%56%weak
7May+2.50%+3.39%54%no clear pattern
8March+2.20%-0.52%50%no clear pattern
9February+1.68%+2.11%54%no clear pattern
10December+1.45%+2.82%60%no clear pattern
11June-1.94%-2.56%46%no clear pattern
12September-3.77%-1.90%38%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Feb 6 to Feb 16Opens in 121 days
77%higher in 30 years
Average +2.20%Median +2.06%Worst year -10.06%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 88%. 1996 to 2010: 73%, 2011 to 2025: 80%.

Mar 10 to May 14Opens in 153 days
80%higher in 30 years
Average +10.25%Median +6.78%Worst year -12.70%

Likely range of the hit rate 63% to 90%. 1996 to 2010: 87%, 2011 to 2025: 73%. Weaker in recent years.

Jun 12 to Sep 5Opens in 247 days
87%higher in 30 years
Average +14.80%Median +14.69%Worst year -29.42%

Likely range of the hit rate 71% to 95%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 93%.

Oct 8 to Dec 12Opens today
83%higher in 30 years
Average +9.68%Median +9.17%Worst year -34.30%

Likely range of the hit rate 66% to 92%. 1996 to 2010: 80%, 2011 to 2025: 87%.

Why it might happen

  • iPhone launch cycle every September and holiday-quarter sales reported in late January.
  • Services growth, China demand, tariffs on electronics and app-store regulation.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Apple. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.