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Question

What is the best month for Airbus?

Short answer

Since 2001, October has been the strongest month for Airbus, averaging +4.97% and rising in 72% of 25 years. March has been the weakest, at -3.38%.

We rate the October pattern as strong and the March pattern as weak. July comes second at +4.69%. A strong month is when prices have tended to rise, not a promise that they will.

Every month, ranked

Airbus, 2001 to 2026

+5.0%+2.5%-2.5%-5.0%Jan: average +2.83%, up in 56% of 25 yearsJanFeb: average +2.81%, up in 72% of 25 yearsFebMar: average -3.38%, up in 36% of 25 yearsMarApr: average +2.60%, up in 60% of 25 yearsAprMay: average +3.16%, up in 58% of 24 yearsMayJun: average -0.35%, up in 60% of 25 yearsJunJul: average +4.69%, up in 80% of 25 yearsJulAug: average +0.08%, up in 46% of 24 yearsAugSep: average -2.60%, up in 36% of 25 yearsSepOct: average +4.97%, up in 72% of 25 yearsOctNov: average +2.94%, up in 60% of 25 yearsNovDec: average +1.05%, up in 60% of 25 yearsDec
Airbus: average move by month. Solid bars held the same direction in both halves of the sample; faded bars did not.
RankMonthAverageMedianUp yearsPattern
1October+4.97%+4.78%72%strong
2July+4.69%+3.94%80%strong
3May+3.16%+2.91%58%weak
4November+2.94%+3.26%60%weak
5January+2.83%+1.10%56%no clear pattern
6February+2.81%+3.39%72%strong
7April+2.60%+2.15%60%weak
8December+1.05%+2.25%60%no clear pattern
9August+0.08%-0.73%46%no clear pattern
10June-0.35%+2.18%60%no clear pattern
11September-2.60%-3.36%36%weak
12March-3.38%-2.00%36%weak

Exact date ranges

Seasonal windows that held in at least 75% of years

Jan 1 to Jan 16Opens in 85 days
79%higher in 24 years
Average +3.49%Median +3.80%Worst year -14.93%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 91%. 2002 to 2013: 67%, 2014 to 2025: 92%.

Mar 20 to Jun 3Opens in 163 days
83%higher in 24 years
Average +6.20%Median +7.81%Worst year -17.87%

Likely range of the hit rate 64% to 93%. 2002 to 2013: 83%, 2014 to 2025: 83%.

Jun 30 to Jul 30Opens in 265 days
79%higher in 24 years
Average +4.43%Median +3.32%Worst year -8.05%

Likely range of the hit rate 59% to 91%. 2002 to 2013: 75%, 2014 to 2025: 83%.

Oct 10 to Nov 14Opens in 2 days
88%higher in 24 years
Average +7.08%Median +5.69%Worst year -12.94%

Likely range of the hit rate 70% to 96%. 2002 to 2013: 92%, 2014 to 2025: 83%.

Why it might happen

  • Aircraft deliveries, which bunch heavily into December every year, and supply-chain constraints.
  • Airline demand, engine availability and trade disputes.

Full statistics, technicals and event reactions: Airbus. How to read these numbers: guide.

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Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.