What happens to stocks after the Fed cuts rates?
It depends on whether a recession follows. After 13 cuts with no recession in the next 12 months, the S&P 500 averaged +2.15% over 20 sessions and rose 85% of the time. After 24 cuts followed by a recession it averaged -0.66% and rose 54% of the time.
Cuts made into a slowdown often come too late to stop the selling. Recessions are dated by the NBER, so the label is only known afterwards. Full Fed study.
More on S&P 500. How to read these numbers: guide.
Alerts for S&P 500
Pick your markets. We email when something relevant moves. Free during launch.
Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.