Market seasonality: what usually happens, month by month.

Seasonal patterns for 74 stocks, indices, commodities, crypto assets and currencies, tested on decades of daily prices. See which months, date ranges and calendar effects have repeated, and how this year compares.

October in seasonality What is the seasonality effect?

Not investment advice: seasonality describes the past, never what to buy or sell.

Decades of daily prices
Patterns checked on years they were not picked from
History, never a forecast

October patterns13marketsStrongest: Alphabet +8.69%Windows20open nowNext: Walmart Ahead or behind29marketsThis year against the usual path Commodity seasons22marketsHarvests, heating, driving Calendar effects6studiesSeptember, Santa, Sell in May

October in seasonality

Markets with a moderate or strong October pattern. For the S&P 500, October has averaged +0.55% and risen in 59% of 98 years.

All markets in October

Usually higher in October

Alphabet+8.69% 73% up, strong
Apple+6.17% 69% up, strong
Airbus+4.97% 72% up, strong
LVMH+4.30% 73% up, strong
Sugar+3.28% 65% up, moderate
Live cattle+2.79% 68% up, strong
Shell+2.44% 77% up, strong
DAX+1.99% 68% up, moderate

Usually lower in October

Cocoa-2.80% 35% up, strong

This season

Seasonal windows about to open, and markets running ahead of or behind their usual seasonal move.

Windows opening soon

Checked on the last 10 years

WalmartOct 16 to Dec 30Higher77%of 30 yrs+5.22%Open now, 73 days left DAXOct 18 to Dec 7Higher93%of 30 yrs+4.58%Opens today KOSPIOct 24 to Nov 8Higher76%of 29 yrs+2.05%Opens in 6 days Eli LillyOct 26 to Dec 30Higher87%of 30 yrs+7.11%Opens in 8 days Dow JonesOct 28 to Nov 7Higher83%of 30 yrs+1.90%Opens in 10 days

All windows

Ahead or behind the season

This year against the usual move by now

BIST 100Sep to Oct, usually higher-18.23%this year+4.76%usual full periodBehind LVMHSep to Oct, usually higher-12.42%this year+2.10%usual full periodBehind ASMLOct 10 to Nov 29, usually higher-7.77%this year+11.79%usual full periodBehind WalmartSep to Nov, usually higher+13.29%this year+7.34%usual full periodAhead Exxon MobilSep 6 to Dec 5, usually higher+12.23%this year+4.98%usual full periodAhead ShellOctober, usually higher+10.32%this year+2.09%usual full periodAhead

All seasonal gaps

Commodity seasons

Harvests, heating demand and driving season give commodities the clearest calendars. Each cell is the average move in that month.

Open commodity seasons

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Energy

Metals

Grains and oilseeds

Softs

Livestock

Higher on averageLower on averageStrong patternNumbers are average monthly moves in percent. Hover or tap a cell for details.

Calendar effects

The best known seasonal sayings, each tested on decades of data.

All calendar studies

September effectIs September the worst month for stocks?See the evidence Santa Claus rallyThe last days of December and first of JanuarySee the evidence Sell in MayWinter against summer, market by marketSee the evidence January effectDo small caps still lead in January?See the evidence Presidential cycleStocks in each year of the US election cycleSee the evidence UptoberIs October really Bitcoin's best month?See the evidence

Best month to buy, by market

Every month ranked by its average move, with the share of up years.

All questions

Best month for GoldEvery month ranked Best month for Nat gasEvery month ranked Best month for BitcoinEvery month ranked Best month for S&P 500Every month ranked Best month for BrentEvery month ranked Best month for SilverEvery month ranked Best month for NasdaqEvery month ranked Best month for Coffee (Arabica)Every month ranked

Seasonality in the news

Today's market stories, set against what usually happens at this time of year.

All articles

October 16, 2026Is October really Bitcoin's best month, and why is it weak this year?Bitcoin's reputation for strong Octobers meets a hot inflation report and a global tech sell-off.Read the article October 14, 2026What moved markets this week, and what is still on the calendar?The week began with a sharp slide in Asian chip stocks and a jump in oil. Midweek brings US inflation data, more earnings and a Fed that has just restarted hiking.Read the article October 13, 2026Why is Brent crude surging and what does seasonality say?Hormuz incidents, a fragile Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and tight diesel supply keep oil bid.Read the article October 16, 2026KOSPI sinks far below its usual October path, with November nextRead the insight October 16, 2026Bitcoin's strongest month is under strain after a drop to $80,154Read the insight October 16, 2026Gold meets a quiet October season as rate hike bets riseRead the insight

Every market's seasonality

Close of October 16, 2026. Open a market for its month-by-month record.

All 74 markets

Not investment advice. Market Seasonality publishes historical statistics, news summaries and scenario analysis for information and education. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and scenarios describe possible paths without predicting them. See the disclaimer and methodology.