# Market Seasonality

> Evidence-based market insights: seasonal patterns for 74 markets (US and European stocks, indices, crypto, commodities, rates and currencies), event studies of Fed and ECB decisions and tariff headlines, and a daily brief with sourced facts and scenarios. Not investment advice.

Data through 2026-10-06. Every figure links to the page it comes from; please cite the page URL.

## Latest
- [Latest daily brief](https://marketseasonality.com/briefs/2026-10-06/)
- [A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/fed-hike-meets-29000-job-september/)
- [Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/yields-at-24-year-highs-nasdaq-at-records/)
- [Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/tariff-threat-up-to-300-percent/)
- [Brazil's first-round surprise sends the Ibovespa to a record](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/brazil-first-round-surprise-ibovespa/)
- [Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/brent-hormuz-risk-premium-opec-hold/)
- [Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/natural-gas-october-window-lng-disruption/)
- [Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highs](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/gold-holds-despite-multi-decade-high-yields/)
- [Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycle](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/bitcoin-uptober-and-the-halving-clock/)
- [Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/q3-earnings-season-starts-with-banks/)
- [The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/euro-17-month-low-french-fiscal-worries/)
- [Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/softs-sugar-surges-cocoa-weak-window/)
- [The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycle](https://marketseasonality.com/insights/midterm-year-fourth-quarter/)

## Event studies
- [Fed rate decisions](https://marketseasonality.com/events/fed-rate-decisions/)
- [ECB rate decisions](https://marketseasonality.com/events/ecb-rate-decisions/)
- [Tariff headlines](https://marketseasonality.com/events/tariff-headlines/)
- [Earnings reactions](https://marketseasonality.com/events/earnings-reactions/)
- [Oil supply shocks](https://marketseasonality.com/events/oil-supply-shocks/)

## Markets
- [S&P 500](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-indices/sp500/)
- [Nasdaq Composite](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-indices/nasdaq-composite/)
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-indices/dow-jones/)
- [Russell 2000](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-indices/russell-2000/)
- [DAX](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-indices/dax/)
- [CAC 40](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-indices/cac-40/)
- [FTSE 100](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-indices/ftse-100/)
- [Euro Stoxx 50](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-indices/euro-stoxx-50/)
- [IBEX 35](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-indices/ibex-35/)
- [FTSE MIB](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-indices/ftse-mib/)
- [Swiss Market Index](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-indices/smi/)
- [Nikkei 225](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/intl-indices/nikkei-225/)
- [KOSPI](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/intl-indices/kospi/)
- [Hang Seng](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/intl-indices/hang-seng/)
- [BIST 100](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/intl-indices/bist-100/)
- [Ibovespa](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/intl-indices/ibovespa/)
- [Apple](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/apple/)
- [Microsoft](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/microsoft/)
- [Nvidia](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/nvidia/)
- [Amazon](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/amazon/)
- [Alphabet](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/alphabet/)
- [Meta Platforms](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/meta/)
- [Tesla](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/tesla/)
- [JPMorgan Chase](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/jpmorgan/)
- [Exxon Mobil](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/exxon/)
- [Eli Lilly](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/eli-lilly/)
- [Walmart](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/walmart/)
- [Berkshire Hathaway](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/us-stocks/berkshire/)
- [ASML](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/asml/)
- [SAP](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/sap/)
- [LVMH](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/lvmh/)
- [Novo Nordisk](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/novo-nordisk/)
- [Siemens](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/siemens/)
- [Nestlé](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/nestle/)
- [Shell](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/shell/)
- [TotalEnergies](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/totalenergies/)
- [Airbus](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/airbus/)
- [Allianz](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/eu-stocks/allianz/)
- [Bitcoin](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/crypto/bitcoin/)
- [Ether](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/crypto/ethereum/)
- [Solana](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/crypto/solana/)
- [XRP](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/crypto/xrp/)
- [BNB](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/crypto/bnb/)
- [WTI crude oil](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/energy/wti-crude/)
- [Brent crude oil](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/energy/brent-crude/)
- [Natural gas (Henry Hub)](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/)
- [European natural gas (TTF)](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/energy/ttf-gas/)
- [Heating oil (ULSD)](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/energy/heating-oil/)
- [Gasoline (RBOB)](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/energy/gasoline/)
- [Gold](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/metals/gold/)
- [Silver](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/metals/silver/)
- [Copper](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/metals/copper/)
- [Platinum](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/metals/platinum/)
- [Palladium](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/metals/palladium/)
- [Aluminium](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/metals/aluminium/)
- [Nickel](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/metals/nickel/)
- [Wheat](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/grains/wheat/)
- [Corn](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/grains/corn/)
- [Soybeans](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/grains/soybeans/)
- [Coffee (Arabica)](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/softs/coffee/)
- [Cocoa](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/softs/cocoa/)
- [Sugar](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/softs/sugar/)
- [Cotton](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/softs/cotton/)
- [Live cattle](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/livestock/live-cattle/)
- [Lean hogs](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/livestock/lean-hogs/)
- [US 10-year Treasury yield](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/rates/us-10y/)
- [US 2-year Treasury yield](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/rates/us-2y/)
- [German 10-year Bund yield](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/rates/germany-10y/)
- [EUR/USD](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/fx/eur-usd/)
- [US dollar index (DXY)](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/fx/dollar-index/)
- [USD/JPY](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/fx/usd-jpy/)
- [GBP/USD](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/fx/gbp-usd/)
- [USD/BRL](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/fx/usd-brl/)
- [USD/TRY](https://marketseasonality.com/markets/fx/usd-try/)

## Seasonality tools
- [Ahead or behind the season](https://marketseasonality.com/seasonal-gaps/): this year against the usual seasonal move
- [Seasonal windows](https://marketseasonality.com/windows/): date ranges that moved the same way in most years
- [Commodity seasons](https://marketseasonality.com/commodities/)
- [Months](https://marketseasonality.com/months/)
- [Calendar studies](https://marketseasonality.com/studies/)

## Questions answered
- [What is the best month for S&P 500?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-sp500/)
- [What is the best month for Nasdaq Composite?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-nasdaq-composite/)
- [What is the best month for Dow Jones Industrial Average?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-dow-jones/)
- [What is the best month for Russell 2000?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-russell-2000/)
- [What is the best month for DAX?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-dax/)
- [What is the best month for CAC 40?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-cac-40/)
- [What is the best month for FTSE 100?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-ftse-100/)
- [What is the best month for Euro Stoxx 50?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-euro-stoxx-50/)
- [What is the best month for IBEX 35?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-ibex-35/)
- [What is the best month for FTSE MIB?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-ftse-mib/)
- [What is the best month for Swiss Market Index?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-smi/)
- [What is the best month for Nikkei 225?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-nikkei-225/)
- [What is the best month for KOSPI?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-kospi/)
- [What is the best month for Hang Seng?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-hang-seng/)
- [What is the best month for BIST 100?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-bist-100/)
- [What is the best month for Ibovespa?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-ibovespa/)
- [What is the best month for Apple?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-apple/)
- [What is the best month for Microsoft?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-microsoft/)
- [What is the best month for Nvidia?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-nvidia/)
- [What is the best month for Amazon?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-amazon/)
- [What is the best month for Alphabet?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-alphabet/)
- [What is the best month for Meta Platforms?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-meta/)
- [What is the best month for Tesla?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-tesla/)
- [What is the best month for JPMorgan Chase?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-jpmorgan/)
- [What is the best month for Exxon Mobil?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-exxon/)
- [What is the best month for Eli Lilly?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-eli-lilly/)
- [What is the best month for Walmart?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-walmart/)
- [What is the best month for Berkshire Hathaway?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-berkshire/)
- [What is the best month for ASML?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-asml/)
- [What is the best month for SAP?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-sap/)
- [What is the best month for LVMH?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-lvmh/)
- [What is the best month for Novo Nordisk?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-novo-nordisk/)
- [What is the best month for Siemens?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-siemens/)
- [What is the best month for Nestlé?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-nestle/)
- [What is the best month for Shell?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-shell/)
- [What is the best month for TotalEnergies?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-totalenergies/)
- [What is the best month for Airbus?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-airbus/)
- [What is the best month for Allianz?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-allianz/)
- [What is the best month for Bitcoin?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-bitcoin/)
- [What is the best month for WTI crude oil?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-wti-crude/)
- [What is the best month for Brent crude oil?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-brent-crude/)
- [What is the best month for Natural gas (Henry Hub)?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-natural-gas/)
- [What is the best month for European natural gas (TTF)?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-ttf-gas/)
- [What is the best month for Heating oil (ULSD)?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-heating-oil/)
- [What is the best month for Gasoline (RBOB)?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-gasoline/)
- [What is the best month for Gold?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-gold/)
- [What is the best month for Silver?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-silver/)
- [What is the best month for Copper?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-copper/)
- [What is the best month for Platinum?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-platinum/)
- [What is the best month for Palladium?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-palladium/)
- [What is the best month for Aluminium?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-aluminium/)
- [What is the best month for Nickel?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-nickel/)
- [What is the best month for Wheat?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-wheat/)
- [What is the best month for Corn?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-corn/)
- [What is the best month for Soybeans?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-soybeans/)
- [What is the best month for Coffee (Arabica)?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-coffee/)
- [What is the best month for Cocoa?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-cocoa/)
- [What is the best month for Sugar?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-sugar/)
- [What is the best month for Cotton?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-cotton/)
- [What is the best month for Live cattle?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-live-cattle/)
- [What is the best month for Lean hogs?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-lean-hogs/)
- [What is the best month for EUR/USD?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-eur-usd/)
- [What is the best month for US dollar index (DXY)?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-dollar-index/)
- [What is the best month for USD/JPY?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-usd-jpy/)
- [What is the best month for GBP/USD?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-gbp-usd/)
- [What is the best month for USD/BRL?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-usd-brl/)
- [What is the best month for USD/TRY?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/best-month-for-usd-try/)
- [Is October really Bitcoin's best month (Uptober)?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/bitcoin-october-uptober/)
- [Is September the worst month for stocks?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/is-september-the-worst-month-for-stocks/)
- [Is the Santa Claus rally real?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/santa-claus-rally/)
- [Does the January effect still work for small caps?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/january-effect-small-caps/)
- [What happens to stocks after the Fed cuts rates?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/stocks-after-fed-rate-cut/)
- [Does 'Sell in May and go away' work?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/does-sell-in-may-work/)
- [How do stocks do in a midterm election year?](https://marketseasonality.com/questions/midterm-year-stocks/)

## Data
- [Full facts as plain text](https://marketseasonality.com/llms-full.txt)
- [Seasonality CSV](https://marketseasonality.com/data/seasonality.csv)
- [Methodology](https://marketseasonality.com/methodology/)
- [How to read the numbers](https://marketseasonality.com/guide/)