[{"slug":"fed-hike-meets-29000-job-september","path":"/insights/fed-hike-meets-29000-job-september/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"A 29,000-job September meets a Fed that just restarted hiking","dek":"The Fed's first hike of a new cycle came just over two weeks before a weak payrolls print. History after first hikes is mixed for stocks over a month.","topics":["rates","macro-data"],"markets":["sp500","us-2y","us-10y","dollar-index","gold","bitcoin"]},{"slug":"yields-at-24-year-highs-nasdaq-at-records","path":"/insights/yields-at-24-year-highs-nasdaq-at-records/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Yields at 24-year highs while the Nasdaq keeps setting records","dek":"The 30-year yield closed at its highest in over 24 years on the same day the Nasdaq printed its 23rd record of 2026.","topics":["market-moves","rates"],"markets":["nasdaq-composite","sp500","us-10y","nvidia"]},{"slug":"tariff-threat-up-to-300-percent","path":"/insights/tariff-threat-up-to-300-percent/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Tariff threats of up to 300%: what past tariff headlines did to markets","dek":"A rally speech named South Korea, China, Japan and Canada. Past escalation headlines have hit Asian exporters and oil hardest within a week.","topics":["political"],"markets":["kospi","nikkei-225","hang-seng","sp500","copper","gold","usd-jpy"]},{"slug":"brazil-first-round-surprise-ibovespa","path":"/insights/brazil-first-round-surprise-ibovespa/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Brazil's first-round surprise sends the Ibovespa to a record","dek":"Flavio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first round. The runoff is on October 25, and the Ibovespa closed at a record.","topics":["political"],"markets":["ibovespa","usd-brl"]},{"slug":"brent-hormuz-risk-premium-opec-hold","path":"/insights/brent-hormuz-risk-premium-opec-hold/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Brent at $102.31: a Hormuz risk premium meets a seasonally weak window","dek":"OPEC+ held output steady and the Brent-WTI spread widened above $11. Autumn refinery maintenance usually softens crude demand.","topics":["supply","seasonality"],"markets":["brent-crude","wti-crude","heating-oil","exxon","shell"]},{"slug":"natural-gas-october-window-lng-disruption","path":"/insights/natural-gas-october-window-lng-disruption/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Natural gas enters one of its strongest seasonal months with LNG flows disrupted","dek":"October has been one of Henry Hub's strongest months in our data. Storage builds are running below average and Qatar extended force majeure into winter.","topics":["seasonality","supply"],"markets":["natural-gas","ttf-gas"]},{"slug":"gold-holds-despite-multi-decade-high-yields","path":"/insights/gold-holds-despite-multi-decade-high-yields/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Gold holds its ground despite yields at multi-decade highs","dek":"Real yields would normally weigh on gold. Central-bank buying is one reason the pullback has stayed contained.","topics":["market-moves","supply"],"markets":["gold","silver"]},{"slug":"bitcoin-uptober-and-the-halving-clock","path":"/insights/bitcoin-uptober-and-the-halving-clock/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Bitcoin's strongest seasonal month arrives late in the halving cycle","dek":"October has been bitcoin's best month in our data. The current cycle is past the window where previous cycles peaked.","topics":["crypto-policy","seasonality"],"markets":["bitcoin","ethereum"]},{"slug":"q3-earnings-season-starts-with-banks","path":"/insights/q3-earnings-season-starts-with-banks/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Third-quarter earnings season starts with the big banks on October 13","dek":"Bank results will be the first read on loan demand and trading under a hiking Fed. A $22.6bn deal shows how fast single-stock moves can be.","topics":["earnings"],"markets":["jpmorgan","sp500","nvidia","asml"]},{"slug":"euro-17-month-low-french-fiscal-worries","path":"/insights/euro-17-month-low-french-fiscal-worries/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"The euro slides to a 17-month low despite two ECB hikes","dek":"French fiscal worries hit the CAC 40 while the dollar rose with Treasury yields.","topics":["rates","political"],"markets":["eur-usd","cac-40","euro-stoxx-50","dax","gbp-usd"]},{"slug":"softs-sugar-surges-cocoa-weak-window","path":"/insights/softs-sugar-surges-cocoa-weak-window/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"Sugar surges, cocoa enters its weakest month, coffee jumps on Brazil rain","dek":"Three soft commodities with very different October records and very different supply stories.","topics":["seasonality","supply"],"markets":["sugar","cocoa","coffee","lean-hogs"]},{"slug":"midterm-year-fourth-quarter","path":"/insights/midterm-year-fourth-quarter/","date":"2026-10-06","headline":"The midterm-year fourth quarter has been the strongest stretch of the four-year cycle","dek":"2026 is a US midterm year. Since 1928 the S&P 500 has risen in most midterm-year fourth quarters.","topics":["seasonality","political"],"markets":["sp500","russell-2000"]}]